Southampton vs Fulham Prediction Adam Hakanson Pro Tipster

Match Result Prediction: Fulham 2-1 Southampton

BTTS Tip: Yes (4/5 with Betway)

Over 2.5 Goals Prediction: Yes (8/11)

Southampton Analysis

Southampton's woeful form sees them mired in a relegation battle, without a win in their last 9 Premier League matches (D2, L7). At home, they've mustered just 1 point from a possible 33, continuing a dire run stretching back to October. The Saints have the division's second-leakiest defence, shipping 2.8 goals per game over their last 10 outings despite decent shot and corner statistics.

Southampton Lineup Prediction Today

4-2-3-1 | Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Lyanco, Salisu, Perraud; Lavia, Ward-Prowse; Murphy, Mara, Sulemana; Isak

Southampton Form Analysis

Strengths:

• Goal threats in Murphy (9 goals) and Isak (6 goals)
• Creativity from set-pieces with Sulemana and Ward-Prowse
• Squad depth with options like Armstrong and Elyounoussi

Weaknesses:

• Porous defence with injury issues at centre-back
• Low morale after relegation was confirmed
• Over 90 lineup changes hint at a lack of cohesion

Marco Silva's Fulham have exceeded expectations, mounting an unlikely push for European qualification from a 10th-placed position. While their form has dipped slightly with 3 straight away defeats, the Cottagers boast the third-best defence in the division and ample firepower led by the prolific Aleksandar Mitrovic (22 goals).

Predicted Fulham Lineup Today

4-2-3-1 | Leno; Tete, Diop, Ream, Robinson; Reed, Palhinha; Wilson, Pereira, Sessegnon; Mitrovic

Fulham Form Analysis

Strengths:

• Defensive solidity conceding under a goal per game
• Mitrovic's goalscoring prowess supplemented by Wilson and Sessegnon
• Motivated by the carrot of potential European football

Weaknesses:

• Away troubles with just 1 clean sheet in last 14 on the road
• Potential absence of Emile Smith Rowe could hurt creativity
• A lack of squad depth compared to rivals

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head-to-head record between Southampton and Fulham is evenly poised, with 2 wins each and 2 draws from their last 6 meetings. The reverse fixture ended in a goalless stalemate, while Southampton claimed a 2-0 home victory in May 2023.

Key Stats

Goals Scored (Season): Southampton 27 - Fulham 53

Assists: Southampton 18 - Fulham 33

Expected Goals (xG): Southampton 28.4 - Fulham 42.7

Clean Sheets: Southampton 5 - Fulham 13

The underlying numbers favour Fulham emphatically. The visitors have scored nearly twice as many goals as Southampton, outperforming their xG while also boasting superior creative output. Crucially, their defensive record dwarfs that of Southampton, keeping 13 clean sheets to Southampton's 5. Data from FBRef and SofaScore.

Betting Odds & Prediction

Match Result Odds: Southampton 5.50, Draw 4.00, Fulham 1.70 (Odds from Betway, subject to change)

Both Teams to Score Odds: Yes 1.80, No 1.95

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.05

Double Chance: Draw or Fulham 1.22, Draw or Southampton 2.10

Given Southampton's defensive struggles, the BTTS (Both Teams to Score) market looks excellent value at 1.80 with most bookies, including the favoured Betway odds of 4/5. An open, high-scoring affair appears likely.