This is an Esiliiga B fixture with league points at stake, and CheckLive’s model makes FA Tartu Kalev the narrow favourite at a 52 per cent win probability. The signal is low, so this is a genuinely close contest in which the draw and an away result both carry real weight.
Looking at recent form, FA Tartu Kalev have had mixed results: wins over Tartu JK Tammeka U21 (2-1) and Pärnu JK Vaprus U21 (1-0), a 1-1 draw with JK Tallinna Kalev U21, a heavy cup loss to Tallinna Kalev (0-8), and a 0-3 scoreline against Jõhvi FC Phoenix. Narva Trans U21’s list contains wins against Jõhvi FC Phoenix (1-0) and TJK Legion (3-1), a 1-0 loss to Tallinna FCI Levadia U19, a 3-3 draw with Viljandi JK Tulevik, and a 4-0 scoreline against JK Tabasalu.
The head-to-head record, from eight previous meetings, shows two wins for FA Tartu Kalev, two draws and four for Narva Trans U21. Their most recent meeting ended 3-2 to Narva Trans U21. Given that history and the low signal behind the home side’s narrow favouritism, the key thing to watch is whether Tartu Kalev can finally shift this series in their favour or whether Narva’s edge in this fixture continues.
