This is a UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round tie, with Motherwell hosting SC Freiburg. CheckLive's data favours the visitors, giving Freiburg a 59% win probability, but the signal is medium rather than strong – so this looks a close one.
Motherwell come in off a 2-1 Premiership win over Hibernian, and their European results have been solid: a 2-0 win over HJK and a 1-1 draw with the same side. There was also a 0-1 League Cup defeat to Stenhousemuir and a 0-0 draw with Falkirk. Freiburg's build-up has been mixed, with friendly wins over Strasbourg and Derby County, a 0-3 loss to Greuther Fürth, and a 0-3 defeat at Aston Villa in the Europa League.
These two sides have no previous meetings, so there is no head-to-head to lean on. The key is whether Freiburg can turn that 59% into control of the game, or whether Motherwell can make home advantage count and force a draw, which remains a very real possibility.
