Sweden host Poland in the UEFA Nations League, and CheckLive leans very slightly towards the visitors at a model signal strength of 52 per cent. That is a low signal and it should be read as such: the two sides are hard to separate, and a draw sits right in the middle of the picture. Both arrive with identical returns from their last four matches, one win, one draw and two defeats apiece.
Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Live Score
Gary RedknappFootball AnalystMATCH PREVIEWAICheckLive AI Bot
Model verdict, form, head-to-head and live pressure for this match. Ask anything in Telegram.
Ask the AI bot about this matchQuestions & Answers
Who is the favourite in Sweden vs Poland?
CheckLive favours Poland. Model signal strength: 52/100.
What is the predicted score?
CheckLive calculation: Sweden 2:3 Poland, in regulation time.
When is Sweden vs Poland?
28 September 2026 at 19:45 UK time
What does Confidence mean?
Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
Head to Head meetings
Sweden – Poland
Sweden
Poland
- 1
Victories
- 0
Draws
- 1
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  1 | 1  |
Scored goals | 3 | 4 |
Average per game | 1.5 | 2 |
The biggest victory | 3-2 | 0-2 |
Sweden
Poland
Best statistical picks
Sweden – Poland
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 matches
Goals over the last 10 matches favour Over 2.5
Corners over the last 10 matches favour Under 8.5
Cards over the last 10 matches favour Under 3.5
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
Pre-match betting activity
$8.4K
Betting volume227
bets- Sweden to win26.9% of bets→$3K61 bets
- Double chance: X211% of bets→$1.8K25 bets
- Over 2.5 goals3.5% of bets→$6928 bets
CheckLive betting analytics uses CheckLive’s internal calculation model. Figures describe activity over the selected period, not unique people or bet slips. Coverage may be partial. How to read betting activity: interactive guide
No data
◆ CheckLive verdict
Evenly matched
Poland is the favourite on CheckLive metrics: overall rating 54 vs 46.7 for Sweden. The biggest edge is in mental resilience (CheckMental 58.4 vs 37.7); CheckLive signal strength 52%.
Over 2.51.67
No clear favorite
Three CheckLive metrics
CheckForm
43.6
51.4
CheckSkill
53
54.1
CheckMental
37.7
58.4
CheckLive total46.7 vs 54+7.3
More match signals
Both teams to score — Yes65%1.57
Over 3.562%2.63
Away win — Poland56%3.20
Today's market odds.
All both teams to score predictions →Bets and model
All markets · picks differ
CHECKLIVEOver 2.566% confidence · 1.67
Betting pickSweden to win27% of bets · $3K
Exact score · picks differ
CHECKLIVE2 : 3expected score
Betting pick2 : 211% of bets · $24
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite in Sweden vs Poland?
On CheckLive metrics the favourite is Poland: overall rating 54 vs 46.7, CheckLive signal strength 52%.
What is Poland's main edge?
Poland is strongest in mental resilience: CheckMental 58.4 vs 37.7 for Sweden. The overall rating gap is 9.9.
How does CheckLive rate the match?
The rating is built on three metrics: form (CheckForm), quality (CheckSkill) and mentality (CheckMental). Their values and the match signals are below.
What does Confidence mean?
Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
What is the correct-score prediction?
CheckLive calculation: 2-3 (Sweden vs Poland, regulation time). Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
Head to Head meetings
/
/
- 0
Victories
- 0
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  0 | 0 |
Scored goals | 0 | 0 |
Average per game | 0 | 0 |
The biggest victory | 0 | 0 |
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.20 |