This is the UEFA Super Cup final, a one-off match for the European season's first major trophy. CheckLive has no favourite here, so there is no win-probability to lean on; the game looks genuinely open, and a draw after 90 minutes is a real possibility.
Paris Saint-Germain arrive with mixed results: they drew 1-1 with Manchester United, lost 3-0 to Mallorca, beat Arsenal 5-4, lost 1-2 to Paris FC and beat Lens 2-0. Aston Villa have also been inconsistent in friendlies, drawing 0-1 with Bayern Munich, beating BG Pathum United 3-1 and Indonesia XI 3-1, then losing 4-2 to Real Sociedad and 2-1 to Porto.
The two sides have met twice before, with one win each; the most recent was Aston Villa's 3-2 win in the Champions League in April. With no clear favourite and both teams showing fluctuating form, the key is which side settles into the game first. Expect a tight, even final.
