Kudermetova P. vs Andreeva M. Prediction by Liza Hysong

Polina Kudermetova arrives at this match in much better shape than she was a few weeks ago. Her late summer was difficult: she struggled badly on serve and with her timing, and a heavy loss to Linda Fruhvirtova (0-6, 3-6) summed up that period, when she won only four games in the whole match and held serve just twice. Around that time she was also losing far too many free points, with double faults piling up and her first-serve percentage dropping under 60%. The recent trend is clearly more positive. In her latest outing she came through a long three-set battle against Clara Tauson despite facing 17 aces, which says a lot about her return work: she won 29% of first-serve return points and 44% of second-serve return points, and she saved most of the break points she faced. Her serve numbers in that match were solid too - 76% of points won behind the first serve and 65% behind the second, with only three double faults, a big improvement on her earlier form. Before that she also recovered from a set down against Ma Yuxuan, converting five break points and holding firm in the deciding set. The main worry remains consistency on second serve, where she sometimes drops below 40% of points won, and the occasional spell of double faults. But her movement, depth from the baseline and willingness to grind through long matches have returned, and she is now winning the tight moments more often than she loses them.

Mirra Andreeva is the higher-ranked and more experienced player at this level, and her recent matches show a familiar mix: dominant stretches, then short dips in concentration. Her most recent performance was excellent. After dropping the opening set to Yuan Yue, she reeled off eleven games in a row, won 74% of her first-serve points and 63% of her second-serve points, saved seven of eight break points and converted five of her own. That kind of turnaround is a sign of real confidence. Her serve has become a genuine weapon in recent weeks, with a high first-serve percentage and strong hold numbers, while her return remains her biggest strength. Against Sasnovich she won 56% of first-serve return points and 72% of second-serve return points, breaking six times in a very one-sided performance. The negative reference point is her defeat to Leylah Fernandez (2-6, 5-7), where she managed only three holds, hit three double faults in a short match and won just 48% of points behind her first serve. She also pushed Coco Gauff to a deciding set, winning more return points than her opponent but failing to protect her serve in the key games. Double faults are her main issue, with five or more in several recent matches, but when her rhythm is there she controls rallies better than almost anyone in this draw.