This is the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Qualification Round 2, with Heart of Midlothian hosting SK Sturm Graz. CheckLive's model favours the home side, giving them a 61% win probability on a high signal — but that's not a lock; the tie is still very much alive and a draw is a real possibility.
Heart of Midlothian come into this after a mixed set of friendlies: wins over Raith Rovers (1-0), Rayo Vallecano (2-1) and Arbroath (2-1), but also losses to Livingston (1-2) and a heavy 0-4 defeat to Sturm Graz in the first leg. Sturm Graz have been in dominant form, winning all five of their most recent outings — including that 4-0 victory over Hearts, plus cup and friendly wins over Seekirchen (3-0), Pogoń Szczecin (1-0), Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5-1) and Kalsdorf (4-1).
The only previous meeting between these sides was that first leg, where Sturm Graz won 4-0. Hearts will need to overturn a significant deficit, but with home advantage and a strong CheckLive signal for them, the key question is whether they can keep a clean sheet and score early — Sturm Graz showed they can be clinical on the counter.
