This is a first-round tie in the EFL Cup, with a place in the next round at stake. CheckLive's model has no clear favourite here, which points to an open contest. Home advantage may matter, but the data says it is close enough to go either way.
Derby beat Mansfield 3-1 and Alfreton 2-0, but lost to Burton 0-1, Valencia 1-2 and Freiburg 1-3. Lincoln beat Doncaster 1-0 and Boston 1-0, but lost to Barnsley 0-3, Grimsby 1-5 and Leyton Orient 0-2. Both pre-season records are patchy, so there is no strong form signal either way.
The head-to-head is slight: from five previous meetings, Derby have two wins, Lincoln one, and the other two ended level. Their most recent meeting, in League One in January 2024, finished 0-0. With so little between these sides and both still early in their competitive season, a draw in normal time is a genuine possibility.
