FC Tallinn host Maardu Linnameeskond in the Esiliiga with league points at stake for both teams. CheckLive's model favours the visitors, giving Maardu a 65% signal strength — high in the model's terms, but not a certainty. A draw is a genuine possibility here.
FC Tallinn have won only one of their last five, beating Viimsi JK 2-1 away, and drew 1-1 at home with Nõmme United U21, but defeats to Nõmme Kalju U21, FCI Levadia Tallinn U21 and Maardu leave them with four goals scored and seven conceded across the run. Maardu are in sharper shape, with four wins from five — home wins over Nõmme United U21 and FCI Levadia Tallinn U21, plus a 3-1 victory at Tallinna Kalev — and a single defeat at FC Elva, having scored ten and conceded five.
The head-to-head from the four supplied meetings is firmly Maardu's way: unbeaten, with two wins and two draws, including a 1-0 home win in the most recent league meeting in August; the earlier league meetings finished 0-0 and 1-1. The watch-point is whether FC Tallinn can avoid defeat against Maardu as they did in those two earlier league meetings, because the visitors have scored ten goals across their last five outings. CheckLive's 65% signal points to the away side, but a draw remains a realistic result.
