CheckLive's model makes New England Revolution favourites for this MLS meeting, giving them a 65% win probability on a strong signal. That is a confident read, but not a foregone conclusion — the remaining probability covers a DC win or a draw, and DC are at home.
DC United come in unbeaten in five, but four of those were draws: 2-2 with Nashville, 1-1 with Houston, 4-4 with Montreal and 1-1 with St Louis, surrounding a 2-1 win over Toronto. New England have been more up and down, with defeats to Houston (0-2) and Charlotte (0-1), draws against Montreal (2-2) and Toronto (0-0), and a 4-1 win over Atlanta.
The head-to-head favours New England: eight previous meetings, with DC winning two, drawing one and losing five. New England also won the most recent meeting 1-0 in April. Watch whether DC's habit of grinding out draws can frustrate the visitors, whose own mixed form makes a draw a real possibility here.
