This is a Round 3 tie in the EFL Cup, with a place in the next round up for grabs. CheckLive favours Crystal Palace, but the edge is modest: a 57% win probability with a medium-strength signal, so this is not being treated as a one-sided contest.
Palace come in off a difficult stretch, losing league games to Manchester City (1-4) and Everton (0-2) as well as a friendly at SC Freiburg (0-3), though they did beat Fulham (2-1) and AlUla (3-1) in pre-season outings. Middlesbrough look in decent nick: a draw at Burnley (1-1) followed by wins over West Bromwich Albion (3-1), Doncaster Rovers (3-1) in this competition, and Lincoln City (2-1), with only a loss at Blackburn Rovers (1-2) breaking that run.
The head-to-head shows no previous meetings between these sides, so there is little direct history to lean on. The key thing to watch is whether Palace can carry any rhythm from their friendly wins into a competitive cup tie against a Middlesbrough side already comfortable in this competition. With the teams close on CheckLive's read, a draw inside 90 minutes is a realistic possibility rather than a surprise.
