Atlético Madrid host Málaga in a LaLiga fixture, and CheckLive's read of the data favours the visitors. Málaga are given a 64% win probability, with a strong signal behind that call. It is not a lock, though — a draw remains a perfectly realistic outcome.
Atlético's recent form has been uneven. They beat Marseille 2-1 and Getafe 4-1, but lost to Manchester City 1-3, Manchester United 1-2, and most recently Villarreal 1-5 in LaLiga. Málaga drew 2-2 with Fulham, lost 1-2 to AD Ceuta, beat Al-Arabi 4-2, and drew 2-2 with Al-Ittihad and 3-3 with Leicester City. Most of those results are from friendlies, so they need to be read with a bit of caution.
The head-to-head record shows no previous meetings between these two sides in the data, so there is little direct history to lean on. The key thing to watch is whether Atlético can tighten up after shipping five against Villarreal, and whether Málaga can carry their solid friendly form into a competitive league match. With the favourite at 64%, the numbers point one way, but this could easily swing either way — including a draw.
