Weekend preview · 31 October 2026
Chelsea v Man United, Bayern v Dortmund, Milan v Inter: where the money is going before Saturday’s big games
At Stamford Bridge the public back Chelsea while the big money is on United or a draw; at the Etihad the money marks out a window of exactly three goals.
Chelsea v Manchester United
Neither side arrives in form. Chelsea have lost three of their last five, including a 2–0 home defeat by Tottenham last weekend and a League Cup exit at Liverpool on Wednesday. United have not won in five: they lost 3–0 at home to Bournemouth last weekend and 4–1 at Como in the Champions League. The last meeting at Stamford Bridge, in April, went to United, 1–0.
Who’s betting on what?
Whether the big money on United or a draw holds until kick-off, and which way it moves after the first goal.
This is the busiest of the five games on CheckLive: 2,237 bets and about $220,000 at 08:40 UK time. Most of the public, 71% of 646 people, back a Chelsea win, and so does 88% of the money on the match result. The largest sum sits elsewhere: in the double-chance market about $133,000, 97% of that market, is on United or a draw, more than three times the $42,000 that was there on Friday evening. The money also expects goals: 99% of the stakes on the 3.5 line are on over 3.5.
Context
19Goals scored30
1.00Average per game1.580–1Manchester UnitedPremier League2–1ChelseaPremier League1–0Manchester UnitedPremier League1–1ChelseaPremier League4–3Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueUnited have a good squad; they have good players and a good manager. It’s going to be a tough game, and we’ll have a good version of us to win the game.
- Out
- Reece James, Emiliano Martínez, João Pedro, Jorrel Hato, Maxence Lacroix, Aaron Anselmino, Jamie Gittens
- Doubtful
- —
We need something to flip for everyone, to change the feeling and get the confidence from us…
- Out
- Benjamin Šeško, Luke Shaw, Manuel Ugarte, Patrick Dorgu
- Doubtful
- Marcus Rashford
Manchester City v Brighton
The second meeting in four days. On Wednesday the League Cup tie at the Etihad finished 2–2 and City went through 4–3 on penalties. In the league City lost 2–1 at Aston Villa last weekend; Brighton were beaten 2–0 at Liverpool.
Who’s betting on what?
Whether the game stays inside the money’s window. A fourth goal would break it, as it did in Fiorentina v Atalanta on Wednesday.
1,146 bets and about $124,000 at 08:35 UK time. The public and the result-market money agree: 80% of 461 people and 96% of the money back a City win, and one of our pros has also backed City. The bigger story is the goals: 89% of the money on the 2.5 line is on over 2.5, while 77% of the money on the 3.5 line, about $42,000 from 22 bets, is on under 3.5. Put together, the money marks out a window of exactly three goals.
Context
43Goals scored17
2.39Average per game0.942–2Brighton & Hove AlbionEFL Cup1–1Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League2–1Manchester CityPremier League2–2Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League2–1Manchester CityPremier LeagueThis season they are much more man to man, a bit more direct in the way they attack but the way they attack is always front foot and aggressive.
- Out
- Antoine Semenyo
- Doubtful
- —
They have the best individual players in the league, so you need to be tough, tight, precise, and at the highest physical and mental level.
- Out
- Kaoru Mitoma, Pascal Struijk, Evan Ferguson, Stefanos Tzimas, Femi Azeez, Zadok Yohanna
- Doubtful
- —
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Der Klassiker brings together two sides in form, but Bayern will be without head coach Vincent Kompany, who is recovering at home after a spell in hospital; his assistant Aaron Danks takes charge. Bayern are unbeaten in five, with 6–1 wins over RB Leipzig and Magdeburg, and have won the last three meetings with Dortmund. Dortmund have lost once in five and kept clean sheets against Frankfurt and Union Berlin.
Who’s betting on what?
The pros usually come in during the match: their stakes and minutes appear in the Pros and big bets feed on the match page.
741 bets and about $53,000 at 08:38 UK time. Here the public and the money agree, and the money is firmer: 66% of 137 people but 99% of the result-market money are on Bayern. The only notable money against them sits in double chance: about $8,700, 85% of that market, on Dortmund or a draw. The money expects goals, but not at both ends: 98% of the stakes on the 2.5 line are on over 2.5, and 77% of the money on whether both teams score is on no.
Context
45Goals scored23
2.65Average per game1.351–2FC Bayern MünchenSuper Cup2–3FC Bayern MünchenBundesliga2–1Borussia DortmundBundesliga2–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga1–1FC Bayern MünchenBundesligaIt’s a big game that the whole world will be watching. We’ll concentrate today on the tactics and want to show all the players what to do.
- Out
- Manuel Neuer, Luis Díaz, Bara Ndiaye
- Doubtful
- Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich
We have to play at the very highest level. But we’re BVB, we have our own standards, and we intend to live up to them.
- Out
- Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias
- Doubtful
- Konstantinos Karetsas
Milan v Inter
Milan come into the derby after a 4–2 home defeat by Bologna on Wednesday; Inter have won four of their last five, the latest 2–0 at Venezia. Inter have not beaten Milan in seven official meetings, since April 2024.
Who’s betting on what?
Whether the money on the result firms up before kick-off. Right now it is 58 to 38.
306 bets and about $15,000 at 08:38 UK time. The public lean clearly towards Inter, 65% of 106 people, and so does the money on the result, though less firmly: 58% on Inter, 38% on Milan. In the double-chance market 77% of the money is on Milan or a draw, and on whether both teams score 74% of the money is on yes.
Context
28Goals scored43
1.08Average per game1.651–1InterClub Friendly Games1–0InterSerie A0–1MilanSerie A0–3MilanCoppa Italia1–1InterCoppa ItaliaIt’s a special match, a unique rivalry between two great teams from the same city who share the same stadium… Inter is a team that can play with its eyes closed.
- Out
- Alexis Saelemaekers, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze, Pietro Terracciano
- Doubtful
- —
There are no favourites in derbies. There’s ambition, desire and pride, and everyone wants to win this kind of game.
- Out
- Lautaro Martínez, Benjamin Pavard, John Stones, Curtis Jones, Luis Henrique
- Doubtful
- —
Barcelona v Alavés
Barcelona have lost two in a row: 2–1 at home to Real Madrid in El Clásico last Sunday and 4–2 at PSG in the Champions League. Alavés have not won in five league games.
The market on the match page had not opened at the time of writing. It usually fills up in the last hours before kick-off; check who is betting on what about an hour before the start.
Context
34Goals scored8
2.43Average per game0.571–0BarcelonaLaLiga3–1Deportivo AlavésLaLiga1–0Deportivo AlavésLaLiga0–3BarcelonaLaLiga1–3BarcelonaLaLigaAlavés are a team that know how to defend well, but we’re Barça and we want to show our best version.
- Out
- Jules Koundé, Eric García, Andreas Christensen, Xavi Espart, Dani Olmo, Roony Bardghji
- Doubtful
- —
We know this is an extremely demanding game by the standards of our league.
- Out
- Facundo Garcés, Mikel Rodríguez
- Doubtful
- Lucas Boyé
During the matches
Once a game starts, the CheckMomentum chart on the match page shows who is pressing, minute by minute, and the money block shows how the picture changes live. Tomorrow morning we will come back with the Saturday match where the money told the most interesting story. All of today’s games are on Popular Bets.