New York City FC vs Toronto FC Tips 03.07.2025
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Betting Tips & MLS Forecast - Thursday, July 3, 2025
Expert Prediction by
Oscar Hasley
Football Betting Analyst • Updated: July 3, 2025
CheckForm™ Analysis: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
CheckForm™ Comparison: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
CheckForm™ Probability Matrix Analysis
| Team | CheckForm™ Score | Win Probability | Form Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 3 | 86% | Average |
| Toronto FC | -2 | 14% | Bad |
CheckForm™ Key Insights:
- Form Gap Analysis: New York City FC's CheckForm™ score (3) is significantly stronger than Toronto FC's (-2), indicating superior recent performance
- Average vs Bad: New York City FC's Average form faces Toronto FC's Bad form - NYCFC has shown more consistent results
- Value Betting: Both Teams to Score offers value based on statistical analysis of both teams' attacking records
- Risk Assessment: Despite NYCFC's superior form, Toronto FC's recent away scoring creates potential for goals
CheckForm™ — The smartest way to measure football team form
Combines match results, opponent strength, key performance metrics, and team momentum into a single powerful index.
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction Summary
Our top pick: New York City FC to win at 2.00 odds with Both Teams to Score at 1.80 odds. NYCFC's home advantage and superior form make them strong favorites against Toronto's struggling away record.
Match analysis: Expect an open game with NYCFC averaging 2.5 home goals and Toronto scoring 3.25 away goals per match, creating ideal conditions for our recommended bets.
Match Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025 (23:30 GMT)
Competition: MLS
Venue: Yankee Stadium (47,309 capacity)
New York City FC Form - Last 5 MLS Matches
Toronto FC Form - Last 5 MLS Matches
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head Record Stats
| Meeting History | NYCFC Wins | Draws | Toronto Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 meetings | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| All-time (8 matches) | 6 | 0 | 2 |
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Match Analysis: Key Betting Metrics
NYCFC boasts strong home performance with 2.5 goals per match at Yankee Stadium, while Toronto concedes 1.63 goals away. The xG data shows NYCFC creates 1.8 big chances per home game versus Toronto's 1.75 away. Both teams average over 3.0 shots on target per match, suggesting consistent attacking threat.
Team Form Analysis: MLS Performance Insights
New York City FC has won 3 of their last 5 home matches, scoring 4+ goals twice. Toronto FC has lost 3 of their last 5 away games but scored in 4 of them. NYCFC's defense has kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home fixtures, while Toronto conceded multiple goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
Top New York City FC vs Toronto FC Betting Tips
- New York City FC to win (2.00): NYCFC has won 6 of 8 historical meetings and boasts superior home form with 86% CheckForm™ probability
- Both Teams to Score (1.80): Toronto averages 3.25 away goals while NYCFC concedes 1.6 at home with 60% probability
- Over 2.5 Goals (1.80): 80% of last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring 2+ goals per match on average
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Score Prediction
Predicted result: New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC
Analysis:
- NYCFC's home scoring average (2.5 goals) combined with Toronto's away goals (3.25) creates ideal 2-1 conditions
- Historical data shows 3 of last 5 meetings ended with 2-1 or 3-2 scorelines
- Toronto's defensive record shows they concede 1.63 goals away while scoring in 75% of away matches
Key Statistics & Betting Indicators
- NYCFC wins 72% of home matches when CheckForm™ rating is Average or better
- Toronto FC has lost 60% of away matches when CheckForm™ rating is Bad
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of last 5 meetings (80% hit rate)
- BTTS occurred in 60% of historical matches and 75% of Toronto's away games
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Betting: Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the New York City FC vs Toronto FC MLS match?
New York City FC has an 86% win probability according to CheckForm™ analysis, supported by their superior home record and Toronto's poor away form.
What is the most likely score prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
Our predicted score is 2-1 to New York City FC, based on NYCFC's home scoring average (2.5 goals) and Toronto's away goals record (3.25) with defensive vulnerabilities.
What are the best betting markets for this MLS fixture?
Top value bets are New York City FC win (2.00), Both Teams to Score (1.80), and Over 2.5 Goals (1.80) based on statistical analysis and historical trends.
What do head-to-head stats show for these teams?
NYCFC dominates with 6 wins in 8 meetings, including 3 wins in last 5 matches. 80% of recent encounters featured over 2.5 goals.
What is current form of both teams ahead of this match?
NYCFC has Average form (W-L-D-W-L in last 5), while Toronto has Bad form (L-L-L-D-W). NYCFC won 2 of last 3 home games, Toronto lost 3 of last 5 away.
Final Betting Prediction & Recommendations
With New York City FC showing strong home advantage and Toronto FC's defensive vulnerabilities, our expert recommendation is a NYCFC win combined with Both Teams to Score. The 2-1 correct score offers value at 8.50 odds. For updated odds and live betting opportunities during the match, visit our real-time MLS betting hub.
Best bets on the New York City FC - Toronto FC
Both New York City FC and Toronto FC both scored in 4 out of 5 matches
Accurate prediction for New York City FC - Toronto FC
You can place a bet
The dynamics of the odds for the match New York City FC - Toronto FC from bookmakers
Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
New York City FC Total OVER/UNDER data statistics
Toronto FC Total OVER/UNDER data statistics
Predictions
MLS CF Montreal - Atlanta United FC
MLS Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC
MLS New York City FC - Columbus Crew
MLS New England Revolution - DC United
MLS Austin FC - Houston Dynamo
MLS Saint Louis City SC - Nashville SC
