Udinese welcome Padova in the Coppa Italia Round of 64, with a place in the next round at stake. CheckLive's numbers favour the home side, but only narrowly: Udinese are given a 56% win probability, with a medium-strength signal. That leaves plenty of room for a draw or an away win.
Udinese's recent results come entirely from pre-season friendlies: wins over Barcelona and Nottingham Forest, both 1-0, a 0-1 loss to Trabzonspor, a 3-3 draw with Mainz and a 1-2 defeat to Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai. Padova have been more varied, drawing 3-3 with Monza, beating Cittadella 2-0, losing 1-3 to Ospitaletto and 1-4 to Sassuolo, before a 4-3 Serie B win over Cesena. That Serie B result is Padova's only competitive outing among the five.
The only previous meeting between the sides came last March, a friendly that Padova won 2-3. With just one head-to-head data point and both teams showing mixed form, this cup tie looks genuinely open — the draw is a real possibility and the key is which side settles into the game first.
