Italy won 3-1 at home to Turkey, and they did it by being the sharper side in front of goal rather than the busier one. Turkey had more of the ball, 55% possession to Italy's 45%, but it was the hosts who turned their best moments into goals.
7.6Riccardo CalafioriItaly · Defender1 goal · 1 shotItaly 3:1 Turkey — Match Report
Gary RedknappFootball AnalystMATCH REPORTFirst half1 - 0
- 26
- 42(Foul)
Second half2 - 1
- 47(Foul)
- 55(Foul)
- 81(Handball)
AICheckLive AI Bot
Model verdict, form, head-to-head and live pressure for this match. Ask anything in Telegram.
Ask the AI bot about this matchLive Prediction
Italy to winWon1.25
CheckLive AI™ · Full-timeBETA
FT3–1I
+35.9Dominant
T
Italy to win
WonQuestions & Answers
What was the final score of Italy vs Turkey?
Italy 3-1 Turkey (UEFA Nations League).
Who scored?
Gianluca Scamacca (26') for Italy; Aral Şimşir (61', assist Eren Elmalı) for Turkey; Riccardo Calafiori (64', assist Nicolò Barella) for Italy; Francesco Pio Esposito (87', assist Alessandro Romano) for Italy.
Was Italy's win deserved?
Yes — Italy were on top for most of the match.
Were there any cards in Italy vs Turkey?
Yellow cards: Gianluca Scamacca (Italy); Matteo Ruggeri (Italy); Zeki Çelik (Turkey); Abdülkerim Bardakcı (Turkey).
Head to Head meetings
Italy – Turkey
Italy
Turkey
- 3
Victories
- 1
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  3 | 0  |
Scored goals | 10 | 4 |
Average per game | 2.5 | 1 |
The biggest victory | 4-1 | 0 |
Italy
Turkey
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
Match betting activity
$1.2M
Betting volume8.1K
bets- Italy to winWon · 19.3% of bets$327.4K1,566 bets
- Double chance: 1XWon · 5.7% of bets$142K458 bets
- Turkey handicap +1.5Lost · 4.3% of bets$81.2K347 bets
CheckLive betting analytics uses CheckLive’s internal calculation model. Figures describe activity over the selected period, not unique people or bet slips. Coverage may be partial. How to read betting activity: interactive guide
There is no enough info about formation in this moment. Checklive again later
◆ CheckLive verdict
Slight edge — Italy
Italy is a slight favourite in the CheckLive calculation: 60.9 + 5.8 for home advantage = 66.7 vs 60.8 for Turkey. The biggest edge is in recent form (CheckForm 59.3 vs 59.1). CheckLive signal strength 58/100.
Both teams to score — Yes1.80
Medium confidence58%
Three CheckLive metrics
CheckForm
59.3
59.1
CheckSkill
56.6
56.6
CheckMental
73.2
73.2
CheckLive total66.7 vs 60.8+5.9Italy: 60.9 + 5.8 for home advantage = 66.7
More match signals
Italy or draw57%1.10
Home win — Italy53%1.38
Under 2.550%2.40
Today's market odds.
Bets and model
Before kick-offAll markets · both picks won
CHECKLIVE · WonBoth teams to score — Yes1.73
Public pick · WonItaly to win983 bets
Exact score · both picks lost
CHECKLIVE · Lost2 : 1expected score
Public pick · Lost2 : 047 bets
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite in Italy vs Turkey?
In the CheckLive calculation Italy is the favourite: 60.9 + 5.8 for home advantage = 66.7 vs 60.8. Signal strength 58/100; it is not a win probability.
What is Italy's main edge?
Italy is strongest in recent form: CheckForm 59.3 vs 59.1 for Turkey. The overall rating gap is 5.9.
How does CheckLive rate the match?
The rating is built on three metrics: form (CheckForm), quality (CheckSkill) and mentality (CheckMental). Their values and the match signals are below.
What does Confidence mean?
Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
What is the correct-score prediction?
CheckLive calculation: 2-1 (Italy vs Turkey, regulation time). Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
Head to Head meetings
/
/
- 0
Victories
- 0
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  0 | 0 |
Scored goals | 0 | 0 |
Average per game | 0 | 0 |
The biggest victory | 0 | 0 |
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | 5.25 | 7.00 |