Lower Breck host Thornaby in FA Cup Qualification Round 1, with a place in the next qualifying round on the line. CheckLive's model favours Lower Breck at 65% win probability, and the signal is strong, but that still leaves plenty of room for an upset.
Lower Breck have won three of their last five, beating Euxton Villa, Clitheroe and Lichfield City, though they lost to Bootle and Runcorn Linnets. Thornaby also have three wins in five, with victories over Horden, Ashington and Newcastle Benfield, but they were beaten by Birtley Town and Blyth Town.
There is no previous meeting between these two sides, so this is a fresh tie. Lower Breck are the side to beat, but Thornaby have already shown they can produce a cup performance, and with no form head-to-head to go on, a draw or a surprise result would not be a shock.
