FK Sūduva Marijampolė visit FK Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga, with league points up for grabs. CheckLive's model favours the visitors, though only with a medium-strength 54 per cent signal rather than a decisive read. That leaves the hosts and the draw firmly in the picture.
Kauno Žalgiris arrive with three wins, a draw and a defeat from their last five. They beat Džiugas Telšiai 5-0 at home in the A Lyga, won 1-0 at Šiauliai FA in the LFF Cup and beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at home in the Europa League, while drawing 0-0 at Banga Gargždai in the league and losing 0-3 at Beşiktaş. Sūduva have won all five of their most recent matches, all in the A Lyga, beating Transinvest 2-1 away, Šiauliai FA 2-1 away, Panevėžys 2-0 at home, Džiugas Telšiai 2-0 away and Banga Gargždai 3-0 away.
The head-to-head sample of their last eight meetings shows four draws, one Kauno Žalgiris win and three Sūduva victories. Add Sūduva's five-match winning run to that and CheckLive's lean is understandable, but the medium signal still says this is close. The key thing to watch is whether the visitors' attack can break down a Kauno defence that kept clean sheets in four of its last five matches.
