This Superliga meeting between River Plate and Independiente Rivadavia has CheckLive's numbers favouring the away side. Independiente Rivadavia are rated at a 55% win probability, but the signal is only medium and the gap is narrow — a draw is a very realistic outcome here.
River Plate have won two and drawn three of their last five: they beat Banfield 3-2 and Argentinos Juniors 2-0, and drew with Vélez Sarsfield 2-2 and with Independiente Santa Fe twice (0-0 and 8-9). Independiente Rivadavia have won two, drawn two and lost one: victories over Racing Club 3-1 and Aldosivi 2-0, draws with Independiente 0-0 and Fluminense 5-6, and a 0-2 defeat to Belgrano.
The head-to-head gives Independiente Rivadavia a historical edge. In five previous meetings, River Plate have just one win, one draw and three losses, and their last Superliga meeting finished 1-1. With both teams showing plenty of draws recently, the key is whether River can turn those shared points into wins or whether the visitors' modest but clear favouritism holds up.
