HNK Hajduk Split host Raków Częstochowa in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round, with progress to the competition proper at stake. CheckLive favour the home side at 60% win probability and the signal is strong, though that still leaves real room for the away side. This is a tight knockout tie in the making, not a one-sided affair.
Hajduk arrive with four wins from their last five: a 2-1 victory over HNK Gorica, 4-0 and 5-2 wins against FK Žalgiris, and a 2-2 draw with NK Istra 1961, though they lost 1-2 at NK Varaždin. Raków’s recent run is more mixed: a 1-0 win over Hammarby IF, a 0-0 draw in the return, and a 4-0 win over Valletta FC, but also defeats to Cracovia and Śląsk Wrocław, both 1-2.
There is no head-to-head history between these clubs, so this is a fresh encounter. The key thing to watch is whether Hajduk can turn their favouritism into control against a Raków side who have shown they can be compact and dangerous in Europe. The 60% read points to home advantage, but a draw is very much on the table.
