Portugal won 2-1 at home to Norway, and the numbers back it up: 59% possession, 20 shots to eight, and an expected goals figure of 1.80 against 0.42. They had the better of it for long spells and had just enough control to see it through, even after going down to ten men late on.
Portugal vs Norway
First half1 - 1
- 12(Yellow card)
Second half1 - 0
- 67J. Strand Larsen
- 86(Yellow card)
- 86(Red card)
- 88(Yellow card)
- 90 + 2F. Trincão
- 90 + 2
Bets and model
Before kick-offAll markets · both picks won
CHECKLIVE · WonHome win — Portugal1.65
Public pick · WonPortugal to win1,090 bets
Exact score · both picks lost
CHECKLIVE · Lost3 : 2expected score
Public pick · Lost3 : 173 bets
Gary RedknappFootball AnalystMATCH REPORT
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Model verdict, form, head-to-head and live pressure for this match. Ask anything in Telegram.
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Head to Head meetings
Portugal – Norway
Portugal
Norway
- 2
Victories
- 0
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  2 | 0  |
Scored goals | 4 | 2 |
Average per game | 2 | 1 |
The biggest victory | 2-1 | 0 |
Form
Portugal
- 5Matches
- 9Goals
- 1.8Goal per game
- 4Wins
- 0Draws
- 1Losses
Norway
- 5Matches
- 7Goals
- 1.4Goal per game
- 1Wins
- 0Draws
- 4Losses
Best statistical picks
Portugal – Norway
Goals over the last 10 matches favour Over 2.5
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 matches
Recent form favours Norway to win
Norway opened the score in 5 of the last 6 matches
Cards over the last 10 matches favour Over 4.5
Cards over the last 10 matches favour Under 4.5
Corners over the last 10 matches favour Under 9.5
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
Questions & Answers
Questions & Answers
What was the final score of Portugal vs Norway?
Portugal 2-1 Norway (UEFA Nations League).
Who scored?
Kristoffer Ajer (36', assist Martin Ødegaard) for Norway; João Cancelo (38', assist Nuno Mendes) for Portugal; Gonçalo Ramos (79', assist João Félix) for Portugal.
Was Portugal's win deserved?
Yes — Portugal were on top for most of the match.
Were there any red cards in Portugal vs Norway?
Yes — sent off: Francisco Conceição (Portugal, 86').
Match betting activity
$1.9M
Betting volume8.9K
bets- Portugal to win$1M2,241 bets
- Double chance: X2$194.7K910 bets
- Over 3.5 goals$177.8K327 bets
CheckLive betting analytics uses CheckLive’s internal calculation model. Figures describe activity over the selected period, not unique people or bet slips. Coverage may be partial. How to read betting activity: interactive guide
◆ CheckLive verdict
Clear favorite — Portugal
Portugal is the favourite in the CheckLive calculation: 68 vs 60.2 for Norway. The biggest edge is in mental resilience (CheckMental 77.4 vs 73.2). CheckLive signal strength 61/100.
Home win — Portugal1.65
Medium confidence61%
Three CheckLive metrics
CheckForm
59.5
58.7
CheckSkill
57.5
55.6
CheckMental
77.4
73.2
CheckLive total68 vs 60.2+7.8
More match signals
Both teams to score — Yes73%1.44
Over 2.571%1.40
Over 3.567%1.91
Today's market odds.
Bets and model
Before kick-offAll markets · both picks won
CHECKLIVE · WonHome win — Portugal1.65
Public pick · WonPortugal to win1,090 bets
Exact score · both picks lost
CHECKLIVE · Lost3 : 2expected score
Public pick · Lost3 : 173 bets
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite in Portugal vs Norway?
In the CheckLive calculation Portugal is the favourite: 68 vs 60.2. Signal strength 61/100; it is not a win probability.
What is Portugal's main edge?
Portugal is strongest in mental resilience: CheckMental 77.4 vs 73.2 for Norway. The overall rating gap is 7.8.
How does CheckLive rate the match?
The rating is built on three metrics: form (CheckForm), quality (CheckSkill) and mentality (CheckMental). Their values and the match signals are below.
What does Confidence mean?
Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
What is the correct-score prediction?
CheckLive calculation: 3-2 (Portugal vs Norway, regulation time). Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 4.50 | 4.50 |