This is a Treta Liga - YZ league fixture, with points on the line for both sides. CheckLive's favourite is the away side, FC Septemvri Simitli, carrying a 65% win probability on a high-strength signal. That is a clear lean, though a draw or a home win remains realistically possible.
FC Pirin have lost all five of their recent matches: 0-3 to Strumska Slava Radomir, 2-4 to Oborishte Panagyurishte, 1-3 to Bansko, 0-3 to Minyor Pernik and 1-3 to Belasitsa Petrich. Septemvri's last five include wins over Balkan (2-1) and Kostinbrod (2-0), draws with National Sofia (3-3) and CSKA III (0-0), and a 2-4 loss at Etropole.
The head-to-head is finely balanced: from eight meetings, each side has three wins and there have been two draws. The last meeting, in April, was a 0-1 game. The key thing to watch is whether Pirin can tighten up after conceding heavily during their losing run, because this fixture has a history of close games.
