This is a Treta Liga - YZ meeting between FC Balkan 1929 Botevgrad and PFC Levski 1914 II Sofia, with points at stake. CheckLive's numbers favour the home side, giving them a 64% win probability, and the signal is strong, but that still leaves plenty of room for a different outcome on the day.
Recent form splits the two sides. The hosts have three wins in their last five, beating OFC Botev 1937 Ihtiman 1-0, OFC Kostinbrod 2012 Kostinbrod 2-1 in the Bulgarian Cup, and FC Kyustendil 1-0, but they lost to PFC Slavia 1913 II Sofia 0-1 and FC Septemvri Simitli 1-2. The visitors have had a tougher run: one win in five, a 5-4 victory over OFK Belasitsa Petrich, a 1-1 draw with PFC Septemvri II Sofia, and three defeats, including 0-1 and 1-2 losses.
These two have met seven times, and the hosts have the better of it with three wins to two, with two draws. The most recent meeting finished 1-1, a reminder that a draw is a genuine possibility here. Given the visitors' struggles and the home side's mixed form, the key thing to watch is whether FC Balkan can turn that 64% favouritism into three points.
