This is a Round 1 EFL Cup tie between Stoke City and Oldham Athletic, with a place in Round 2 up for grabs. CheckLive's model leans towards Oldham, giving them a 62% win probability on a high signal. That makes the visitors clear favourites, but it is a cup tie and a draw is a real possibility.
Stoke's recent form is all from pre-season friendlies: a 1-0 win over Everton, a 1-0 win over Chester, draws with Valencia and Crewe Alexandra, and a 0-1 loss to Sporting Braga. Oldham have also mostly played friendlies, beating Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 and Accrington Stanley 3-0, while losing to Stockport County, Huddersfield Town and Bolton Wanderers. Oldham's results are thus a mix, and only one competitive match appears in their form.
The two sides have no previous meetings, so there is no head-to-head history to lean on. The key is whether Stoke's solid defensive friendlies can hold up against an Oldham side that scored four against Sheffield Wednesday but also conceded three in two separate games. Expect a tight cup tie.
