This is a League Two fixture between two sides who could both use a steadying result. CheckLive has no favourite here, so there is no win probability to lean on; it looks close, and a draw is a genuine possibility.
Northampton have drawn three of their last five, including 1-1 against Crawley Town and Gillingham and 0-0 against Swindon Town, with defeats to Crewe Alexandra and Brighton & Hove Albion U21. Newport have had a bumpier run: losses to Salford City, Bristol Rovers and AFC Wimbledon, but a draw at Tranmere Rovers and a 3-0 win over Rochdale.
The last seven meetings between these teams favour Northampton, who have four wins to Newport's two with one draw. Newport did win the most recent meeting 3-0 in April 2023, but Northampton's recent games have been tight while Newport's have been open and high-scoring, so the key is which pattern shows up here.
