This is the Round of 16 of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with a place in the quarter-finals at stake. CheckLive's data favours Santos, giving them a 58% win probability, but the signal is medium rather than strong, so this is not a one-sided read. Santos are the likelier winners, yet a draw or even an away win would not be a major surprise.
Santos arrive with two wins and three draws from their last five: a 1-0 win over Remo and a 4-2 victory against UCV FC, plus draws with Athletico (0-2), Remo (0-0) and Chapecoense (2-2). Macará have won four of their last five, beating Barcelona SC 2-1, Guayaquil City 2-1, Aucas 4-1 and Deportivo Cuenca 3-0, with their only loss a 1-2 reverse at Gualaceo SC.
The sides have never met before, so there is no head-to-head form to lean on. The key thing to watch is whether Macará's recent scoring form can carry over against a Santos side that have been solid without being spectacular. Given the medium signal and the absence of previous meetings, this tie looks genuinely open.
