Azerbaijan edged Lithuania 1-0, and they did it with the ball mostly somewhere else. Lithuania held 61% possession and strung together 375 accurate passes to Azerbaijan's 218, but the hosts took the one big chance that mattered.
Azerbaijan 1:0 Lithuania — Match Report
Gary RedknappFootball AnalystMATCH REPORTFirst half1 - 0
- 25A. khaybulaev
- 33A. khaybulaev(Yellow card)
- 43(Yellow card)
- 45V. İsgändärli
Second half0 - 0
- 51(Yellow card)
- 53Red card cancelled (A. khaybulaev)
- 54(Yellow card)
- 57V. İsgändärli(Yellow card)
- 64E. SafarovO. Məmmədov
- 64R. DadaşovA. khaybulaev
- 80C. NuriyevA. Isaev
- 88E. BadalovT. Mutallimov
- 90 + 2E. Badalov(Yellow card)
- 90 + 7(Yellow card)
- 90 + 7(Red card)
AICheckLive AI Bot
Model verdict, form, head-to-head and live pressure for this match. Ask anything in Telegram.
Ask the AI bot about this matchLive Prediction
Lithuania to winLost1.65
CheckLive AI™ · Full-timeBETA
FT1–0A
+10.1Clear edge
L
Lithuania to win
LostQuestions & Answers
What was the final score of Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania (UEFA Nations League).
Who scored?
Abdulakh khaybulaev (25', assist Toral Bayramov) for Azerbaijan.
Was Azerbaijan's win deserved?
Yes — Azerbaijan were on top for most of the match.
Were there any red cards in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Yes — sent off: Armandas Kučys (Lithuania, 90+7').
Head to Head meetings
Azerbaijan – Lithuania
Azerbaijan
Lithuania
- 1
Victories
- 1
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  1 | 0  |
Scored goals | 2 | 1 |
Average per game | 1 | 0.5 |
The biggest victory | 1-0 | 0 |
Azerbaijan
- 5Matches
- 5Goals
- 1Goal per game
- 3Wins
- 2Draws
- 0Losses
Lithuania
- 5Matches
- 6Goals
- 1.2Goal per game
- 2Wins
- 1Draws
- 2Losses
Best statistical picks
Azerbaijan – Lithuania
X2 hasn't lost in 4 of the last matches
Goals over the last 10 matches favour Over 2.5
Goals over the last 10 matches favour Under 2.5
Lithuania opened the score in 4 of the last 5 matches
Corners over the last 10 matches favour Under 8.5
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Match betting activity
$445.5K
Betting volume4.7K
bets- Azerbaijan to winWon · 13.7% of bets$84.9K644 bets
- Under 1.5 goalsWon · 8.3% of bets$52.1K391 bets
- Double chance: 1XWon · 6.4% of bets$45.1K301 bets
CheckLive betting analytics uses CheckLive’s internal calculation model. Figures describe activity over the selected period, not unique people or bet slips. Coverage may be partial. How to read betting activity: interactive guide
There is no enough info about formation in this moment. Checklive again later
◆ CheckLive verdict
Slight edge — Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is the favourite in the CheckLive calculation: 39.4 + 5.8 for home advantage = 45.2 vs 38.9 for Lithuania. The biggest edge is in overall quality (CheckSkill 48.9 vs 48). CheckLive signal strength 59/100.
Over 3.54.50
Medium confidence59%
Three CheckLive metrics
CheckForm
35.8
35.5
CheckSkill
48.9
48
CheckMental
24.4
24.4
CheckLive total45.2 vs 38.9+6.3Azerbaijan: 39.4 + 5.8 for home advantage = 45.2
More match signals
Over 4.560%8.50
Both teams to score — Yes58%2.20
Home win — Azerbaijan52%2.55
Today's market odds.
All both teams to score predictions →Bets and model
Before kick-offAll markets · only the betting pick won
CHECKLIVE · LostOver 3.54.50
Public pick · WonAzerbaijan to win135 bets
Exact score · both picks lost
CHECKLIVE · Lost3 : 2expected score
Public pick · Lost1 : 126 bets
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
In the CheckLive calculation Azerbaijan is the favourite: 39.4 + 5.8 for home advantage = 45.2 vs 38.9. Signal strength 59/100; it is not a win probability.
What is Azerbaijan's main edge?
Azerbaijan is strongest in overall quality: CheckSkill 48.9 vs 48 for Lithuania. The overall rating gap is 6.3.
How does CheckLive rate the match?
The rating is built on three metrics: form (CheckForm), quality (CheckSkill) and mentality (CheckMental). Their values and the match signals are below.
What does Confidence mean?
Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
What is the correct-score prediction?
CheckLive calculation: 3-2 (Azerbaijan vs Lithuania, regulation time). Confidence describes model signal strength, not the probability of a win or an exact score.
Head to Head meetings
/
/
- 0
Victories
- 0
Draws
- 0
Victories
| label | first team | second team |
|---|---|---|
Victories |  0 | 0 |
Scored goals | 0 | 0 |
Average per game | 0 | 0 |
The biggest victory | 0 | 0 |
Odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.90 |