Leyton Orient host Bradford City in the EFL Cup third round, with a place in the fourth round on the line. CheckLive's model makes Bradford the favourites, giving them a 54% win probability, but that is a modest edge with a medium signal. This one looks close enough that a draw inside 90 minutes, or an Orient win, would not be a shock.
Leyton Orient's recent run shows four wins in five: 5-0 against Bromley, 6-5 against Walsall in the EFL Cup, 2-0 against Wigan Athletic and 7-6 against AFC Wimbledon in the Football League Trophy, with a 1-3 defeat at Barnsley in that stretch. Bradford City have been more uneven, losing 1-2 at Cambridge United and 0-2 to Plymouth Argyle before beating Burnley 4-2 in the EFL Cup, Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 and Peterborough United 2-0.
The head-to-head record favours Orient: eight meetings have brought four Orient wins, two draws and two Bradford wins. The most recent meeting, in League One, went Bradford's way 2-1. Given CheckLive's modest 54% lean, the key thing to watch is whether Orient's scoring touch in cup ties carries over or Bradford's recent winning run proves the stronger form.
