This is a Coppa Italia Round of 64 knockout tie between Lazio and Mantova, with no second leg to fall back on. CheckLive's model has Lazio as favourites with a 60% win probability, but the medium signal means this is not a one-sided read. A draw is a real possibility in a single-match cup tie.
Lazio come into this on the back of five friendly wins: 2-1 over Frosinone, 4-0 against Ostia Mare, 2-1 versus Ascoli, 6-3 past Avellino and 6-0 over Flaminia Civita Castellana. Mantova have had a more varied run: they beat Legnago Salus 3-1 and Alcione Milano 6-2 and lost 0-1 to Carpi in friendlies, while in Serie B they lost 0-5 to Frosinone and beat Monza 3-2.
There is no head-to-head history between the two clubs to draw on. The key is whether Lazio's pre-season sharpness, built through a string of convincing friendly results, carries into a competitive cup tie against a Mantova side who have already played league matches. That makes this harder to call than the 60% might suggest.
