This is an Apertura league meeting with points at stake, and CheckLive's data clearly favours Atlético Nacional at a 62% win probability with a high signal. That is a strong lean, but not a certainty: a draw is a genuine possibility here. Santa Fe will feel they can take something from the game.
Atlético Nacional's recent form has been mixed: a 3-0 win over Jaguares de Córdoba and two 2-0 wins over Tigres FC in the Copa Colombia sit either side of losses to América de Cali and Deportivo Táchira. Santa Fe have won three of their last five — beating Boyacá Chicó 2-0, Unión Magdalena 2-0 and Caracas 3-0 — while drawing 2-2 with Once Caldas and losing 1-2 at Rionegro Águilas Doradas.
The head-to-head shows Atlético Nacional with four wins to Santa Fe's one and three draws in eight meetings. Their most recent meeting, in February, went to Atlético Nacional. The key to watch is whether Santa Fe can keep the game tight and force a draw, or whether the home side can turn their strong signal into three points.
