This is the second leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana playoff round, with everything to play for after a 2-2 draw in the first meeting. CheckLive's data puts Independiente Medellín as the favourite away from home with a 64% win probability, but the signal is clear that a draw remains a very real outcome in this tightly-contested tie.
Vasco da Gama come into this off two straight defeats in the Brasileiro Série A, losing 0-1 to Vitória and 0-1 to Atlético Mineiro, though they did beat Barracas Central 3-0 in the competition's group phase. Independiente Medellín, meanwhile, have mixed form in recent weeks — a 3-2 win over Deportivo Pasto, a 2-1 victory against Cúcuta Deportivo, but also a 0-1 loss to Estudiantes de La Plata in the Libertadores.
The only previous head-to-head meeting was that first-leg stalemate in Brazil, a 2-2 draw that leaves the tie wide open. With both sides capable of scoring and the aggregate score level, the second leg in Medellín promises to be a cagey affair where a draw — which would send the game to extra time — is a very plausible outcome.
