Hertha BSC host 1. FC Heidenheim in a 2. Bundesliga fixture, with league points on the line. CheckLive's model makes Hertha the clear favourite, giving them a 72% win probability, and that read comes with a strong signal. It is not a guarantee, but the numbers point firmly in one direction.
Hertha come into this one with three wins in their last five, including a tidy 1-0 league success over VfL Bochum and friendly wins against WSG Tirol and Lokomotive Leipzig. They also drew with Köln and Mamelodi Sundowns, so there has been a bit of wobble in pre-season. Heidenheim, meanwhile, have scored plenty in friendlies, including a 9-0 rout of Nördlingen, but their only competitive result in this five-game stretch was a 4-3 win over Osnabrück. A friendly defeat at Hamburg shows they can be got at.
The two sides have met only once before, when Hertha won 2-1 in the DFB Pokal back in October 2024. That gives the home side a small historical edge, but with such a thin head-to-head record, the key will be whether Heidenheim can carry their scoring form into a league setting and test Hertha's defence, which has been reasonably solid lately.
