This League Two fixture pits two out-of-form sides against each other, and CheckLive's model makes Rochdale favourites with a 61% win probability, backed by a strong signal. The prize is a valuable three points, but the home side's recent results make that favouritism look fragile.
Rochdale have lost four straight, going down 0-1 to Colchester United, 1-2 to Crawley Town, 0-3 to Newport County and 0-2 to Bradford City in the EFL Cup, with a 4-3 EFL Cup win over Tranmere Rovers before that. Gillingham have drawn 1-1 with Northampton Town and 0-0 with Fleetwood Town, lost 0-3 to Walsall and 0-3 to Luton Town in the EFL Cup, and beat Ebbsfleet United 2-1 in a friendly.
The head-to-head is tight but favours Gillingham: one Rochdale win, three draws and four Gillingham wins from eight meetings, with Gillingham winning the most recent encounter 0-2 in League Two last February. With both teams struggling to win, the key watch is whether Rochdale can end their losing run; if not, a draw is a very reasonable outcome.
