This is a Copa do Brasil Round of 16 tie between local rivals Vasco da Gama and Fluminense. CheckLive favours Fluminense, giving them a 59% win probability with medium signal, but the contest looks open and a draw is very much on the cards.
Vasco da Gama come into this with mixed form: they drew 1-1 with Mirassol and 2-2 with Independiente Medellín, lost 0-1 to both Vitória and Atlético Mineiro, then beat Barracas Central 3-0. Fluminense have been more consistent lately, with draws against Grêmio (1-1), Red Bull Bragantino (1-1) and Cruzeiro (1-1), plus friendly wins over Bahia (2-0) and Nova Iguaçu (6-1).
Head-to-head, the sides have met eight times, with Vasco da Gama winning three, Fluminense winning three, and two draws. The last meeting was a 3-2 Vasco win in the Brasileiro Série A in March 2026. With both teams capable of scoring and the derby intensity, it could go either way.
