This Treta Liga - YZ fixture sees FC Etropole host OFC Botev 1937 Ihtiman, with both sides looking for league points. CheckLive's model favours the home side, giving FC Etropole a 77% win probability, and that signal is strong. Still, that leaves a clear chunk of uncertainty, so a draw is very much part of the picture.
FC Etropole have won one of their last five: a 4-2 home win over FC Septemvri Simitli, alongside defeats to FC Kyustendil (1-3), FK Strumska Slava Radomir (1-2) and FC Bansko Team Bansko (0-3), plus a 1-1 draw with FC Oborishte Panagyurishte. OFC Botev 1937 Ihtiman have three wins in five, beating PFC CSKA III Sofia 2-1, OFC Kostinbrod 2012 1-0 and FC Slivnishki Geroy Slivnitsa 3-2, with losses at FC Balkan 1929 Botevgrad (0-1) and at home to PFC Septemvri II Sofia (1-2).
The head-to-head is eye-catching: the sides have met three times and OFC Botev 1937 Ihtiman have won all three, including a 5-1 away win in the last meeting, in the Bulgarian Amateur Cup. So while CheckLive sees FC Etropole as clear favourites, the away side have owned this fixture. The key thing to watch is whether home form can finally overturn that head-to-head record, with a draw a genuine alternative if neither side breaks through.
