This is the Europa Conference League playoff round, and CheckLive's model makes Panathinaikos the favourites with a 56% win probability. That is a moderate edge, with medium confidence, so a draw or an away win is genuinely possible.
Panathinaikos lost only once in their last five, that defeat coming in a friendly against Rapid Wien (1-4). In the qualifiers they beat CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-1 and drew the return 1-1, then drew 2-2 with Paksi before winning the second leg 2-1. Hradec Králové lost twice 1-0 to Beşiktaş in the Europa League, but beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 and Tromsø 3-1, with a goalless draw against Bohemians Praha 1905 in between.
The two sides have never met before, so there is no head-to-head to lean on. The key is whether Panathinaikos can turn their steady qualifier form into control of the tie, while Hradec will take confidence from two narrow losses to Beşiktaş. With the favourite rated at just 56%, this one looks open.
