Cheltenham Town welcome Rotherham United for a League Two fixture. CheckLive's model favours the home side, giving them a 63% win probability on a strong signal. That is a clear lean but not a certainty, and with a draw a realistic outcome, Rotherham come into the match with a genuine chance.
Cheltenham's recent form is patchy: they lost 1-4 to Colchester United and 0-4 to Bristol Rovers in League Two, lost 1-3 at Charlton Athletic in the EFL Cup, lost 0-2 to MK Dons, and beat Evesham United 3-0 in a friendly. Rotherham's last five are a 1-4 loss to West Bromwich Albion, a 1-1 draw with Derby County, a 2-0 win over Darlington, a 0-2 loss to Sheffield United and a 1-0 win over Alfreton Town; nearly all of that sample is friendlies or cup football.
The head-to-head is narrow: three meetings, two Rotherham wins and one Cheltenham win, with no draws. The most recent clash, in the FA Cup in November 2024, finished 1-3 to Rotherham. With the home side carrying a 63% win probability but Rotherham holding a better head-to-head record, this looks close enough that a draw should not be ruled out.
