Grimsby Town host Blackpool in the EFL Cup first round, with a place in round two on the line. CheckLive's data makes Grimsby the favourites with a 67% win probability, and the signal is strong. Still, that leaves a third of the outcome space with Blackpool, so this is not a one-sided certainty.
Grimsby come in unbeaten across five pre-season friendlies, beating Wigan Athletic 2-0, Lincoln City 5-1 and Hartlepool United 3-0, plus draws with Boston United and Zoria Luhansk. Blackpool's summer was rockier: three straight friendly defeats to Port Vale, Barrow and Tranmere, then a 3-2 win over AFC Fylde and a 1-0 League One victory at Reading. It is a mixed picture, and Blackpool's only competitive result here is that narrow league win.
There is no head-to-head record between these two sides to go on, so form and the pre-match read carry the weight. The key thing to watch is whether Grimsby's clean run through friendlies translates against a Blackpool side that has just found a league win. A draw is a genuine possibility given the data.
