This is a Brasileiro Série A meeting between Santos and Athletico, with league points on the line. CheckLive's numbers favour Santos, giving them a 56% win probability, but the signal is medium rather than emphatic. That makes this a close enough call that a draw is a genuine possibility.
Santos arrive with three wins and two draws from their last five, beating Remo 1-0, drawing 0-0 with Remo, beating UCV FC 4-2, drawing 2-2 with Chapecoense and beating UCV FC 4-1. Athletico have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, with victories over Vitória 2-0, Internacional 2-0 and São Paulo 2-1, a 0-0 draw with Corinthians and a 1-2 loss to Red Bull Bragantino.
The head-to-head gives Athletico the edge: from eight meetings they have four wins to Santos' two, with two draws. The most recent meeting was a 2-1 Athletico win in this competition. With Santos only mild favourites, the key is whether they can handle an Athletico side that has been strong in recent league games.
