Round 1 of the Taça de Portugal pits GD Alcochetense against Fayal SC. CheckLive's model favours the home side, giving Alcochetense a 71 per cent win probability, and the signal is high. That is the strongest read on this tie, but it is not a lock — a draw is still within the realistic range.
Alcochetense's last five league results are mixed: two wins, two draws and a defeat. They drew 2-2 with GD Portel, lost 2-3 to Juventude Sport Clube, beat GD Lagoa 2-1 and F.C. Alverca B 1-0, and drew 1-1 with Clube Oriental de Lisboa. Fayal SC's five recorded results are all Ds in the data — a 1-5 and a 4-1 against Vitória FC (Pico), a 1-1 with the same opponent, a 0-1 with FC Madalena, and one FC Madalena meeting with no score logged.
The head-to-head is empty — no previous meetings between the two sides are recorded. That makes the recent form lines the only guide, and Fayal's unorthodox set of results leaves room for a draw. How quickly Alcochetense settle is likely to shape the tie.
