This is Ajax against Shelbourne in the third qualifying round of the UEFA Europa Conference League. CheckLive's model does not mark either side as a favourite, so the gap between them is genuinely open and a draw is a real possibility.
Ajax come in on a strong run, with wins over FC Volendam (3-1), Burnley (2-1) and Olympiacos (1-0) in friendlies, plus two wins against FK Vojvodina in this competition (4-1 on both occasions). Shelbourne's recent form is patchier: they lost to Waterford (0-1) and Kerry (5-6), beat Nõmme Kalju 5-2 after losing the earlier meeting 1-2, and drew 1-1 with Celtic in a friendly.
The two clubs have no previous competitive meetings, so there is no head-to-head form to lean on. The key thing to watch is whether Shelbourne can bring the scoring touch they showed against Nõmme Kalju, because Ajax have been putting goals in regularly.
