How Accurate Are AI Football Predictions? We Measured Ours on 10,901 Matches
Measured 27 August 2026 · 10,901 matches
How accurate are AI football predictions? We measured ours
Over the last 180 days our prematch model rated 10,901 finished football matches. Here is exactly how often it was right — and the three places it is not good enough.
The team we rated higher won 48.1% of those matches, drew 20.4% and lost 31.5%. Blindly backing the home team across the same sample would have won 44.8%. That is the whole answer. There is no 94%.
This page used to claim 94% accuracy. That number was never measured — it was written to rank in search, and it was false.
We have removed it, along with the customer testimonials on this page, which were invented, and the "value betting" advice, which we cannot support with evidence. A prediction service that will not show its record is not a prediction service.
Accuracy depends on how far apart the teams are
A single accuracy figure is close to meaningless, because matches are not equally predictable. What matters is the gap between the two ratings.
| Rating gap | Matches | Won | Drew | Avoided defeat | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2 — near-even | 3,393 | 42.2% | 21.0% | 63.2% | |
| 2 to 5 | 3,516 | 47.3% | 21.2% | 68.5% | |
| 5 to 10 | 2,117 | 53.8% | 19.6% | 73.4% | |
| Over 10 — clear favourite | 1,875 | 53.9% | 18.9% | 72.8% |
Read that honestly. When our model says two teams are close, it is barely better than guessing. When it separates them by more than five points, it is right slightly more than half the time, and its pick avoids defeat in roughly three matches out of four. The value is in the ordering, not in certainty.
Where our model is not good
Measured as a Brier score on the "home win" outcome, our model scores 0.2520 against 0.2500 for a flat 50/50 guess. Lower is better, so on that specific measure we are marginally worse. The model ranks matches usefully; it does not yet turn that ranking into well-calibrated probabilities.
We tested our live signals across 806 cases. The result was a 13.3% loss. Bookmaker odds remain a better probability estimate than our model. Anyone claiming their free model beats the closing line should be asked for the numbers you are reading now.
CheckLive explains what is happening in a match and why. It does not tell you what to stake, and it never will.
We do not cover every match
In a live sample of 60 upcoming football matches, five had a prediction.
Predictions are generated for 1,328 leagues. That sounds like a lot, and it is — but football alone has around 7,000 leagues in our database, so most matches you open will not have one. We switch a league on only when its data is complete enough to model. If you open a match and there is no prediction, that is why.
The major competitions are all covered: the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Champions League and the Europa League.
What the model actually is
A weighted combination of three measurements. It is not a neural network, and the weights are fixed and published — so the output can be reasoned about rather than taken on faith.
The inputs come from our own database: 3,437,418 matches, 19,358,921 recorded match incidents, 1,091,664 players and 287,009 teams. Once a match kicks off, the same composite becomes the anchor of our live curve — goals move it sharply, sustained attacking pressure moves it gently. Across 14,070 matches that curve has recorded 1,490,224 data points.
How to read a prediction
- Look at the gap first, not at the prediction. Under two points, treat the match as open.
- Read the three components separately. A team strong on CheckSkill but weak on CheckForm is a different proposition from the reverse.
- During the match, follow the live curve for the narrative — who is pushing, and whether the pressure is real or cosmetic.
Open a match page on checklive.com and select the Predictions tab. It is free and needs no registration.
Questions people actually ask
Measured on 10,901 finished matches over 180 days: the higher-rated team won 48.1%, drew 20.4% and lost 31.5%. Accuracy rises with the rating gap, from 42.2% on near-even matches to 53.9% on clear favourites.
Because its league is not enabled. We cover 1,328 leagues out of roughly 7,000 in football, and we switch a league on only when its data is complete enough to model.
Each prediction is generated once, typically three to four days before kickoff, and is not regenerated afterwards. It does not react to late team news or confirmed lineups. We would rather tell you that than imply a freshness we do not have.
No, and we have measured that. Our live signals returned a 13.3% loss across 806 cases. Use the model to understand matches, not to find value against the market.
Yes. No registration, no paywall, no hidden tier.
Because it was written to rank in search rather than to be true. The claim was never measured.
We publish that too. Our Telegram channels run a recurring feature reviewing predictions after the fact, including the misses.
Method. Every finished football match in the last 180 days for which our system produced a prematch rating: 10,901 matches. The rating is the CheckLive composite, frozen at kickoff, before any live data enters. Outcomes come from our own match database.
No filtering. Every league, clear favourites and coin-flips alike. We did not keep only the confident matches to flatter the number.
Last measured 27 August 2026.